Historically, after a destructive wildfire, forested area passed through a series of seral successional stages lasting many decades as they return essentially to the composition they exhibited prior to the fire. Regrettably, forest species each have their own physiological tolerance for climatic conditions. As climate change unfolds, local conditions can shift outside the range that historically present species can tolerate. The result may be a drastic change in the species composition of landscapes recovering from wildfire – Alan Journet
Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact vegetation in the western United States, leading to shifts in dominant Plant Functional Types and carbon storage. Here, we used a biogeographic model integrated with a biogeochemical model to predict changes in dominant Plant Functional Type by 2070−2100. Results show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, 40% of the originally forested areas will transition to shrubland (7%) or grassland (32%), while under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, 58% of forested areas shift to shrubland (18%) or grassland (40%). These shifts in Plant Functional Types result in a net overall loss in carbon storage equal to −60 gigagram of carbon and −82 gigagram of carbon under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate the effects of climate change on vegetation and carbon storage in the region.
